Every day the site opens 10,000 Sorcery boxes at random, at that day's TCGplayer Near Mint lows, to see how far one box lands from the average.
Gothic
Each bar is how many of the 10,000 boxes were worth that much. Boxes right of the dashed line are worth more than the box price. 5% of boxes land past the right edge.
The luckiest 1 box in 10 holds 23% of all the card value.
62% of boxes are worth less than the average box ($229.35); 60% are worth more than the box ($171.91).
Most of the average comes from Unique 43%, Foil Unique 28%, Elite 12%.
Arthurian Legends
Each bar is how many of the 10,000 boxes were worth that much. Boxes right of the dashed line are worth more than the box price. 5% of boxes land past the right edge.
The luckiest 1 box in 10 holds 31% of all the card value.
67% of boxes are worth less than the average box ($133.05); 40% are worth more than the box ($116.85).
Most of the average comes from Unique 51%, Foil Unique 33%, Elite 6%.
Beta
Each bar is how many of the 10,000 boxes were worth that much. Boxes right of the dashed line are worth more than the box price. 5% of boxes land past the right edge.
The luckiest 1 box in 10 holds 22% of all the card value.
61% of boxes are worth less than the average box ($183.25); 44% are worth more than the box ($174.89).
Most of the average comes from Unique 35%, Foil Unique 22%, Elite 17%.
What volatility means
Most of what a Sorcery box is worth comes from its Uniques, and most of all from a foil Unique, which shows up about once every one to two boxes. A box holds about 7 regular Uniques (4.5 in Arthurian Legends), so the value is spread over many cards. Volatility tells you how much a box depends on pulling the expensive ones.
Low: most boxes are worth about the same. What you open is close to the average.
Moderate: boxes vary, but most land near the average.
High: most boxes come in under the average. A few lucky boxes with a big hit make up the difference.
Extreme: the average is carried by rare hits. Most boxes are worth well under it.
For example, Arthurian Legends scores 42 (Moderate): the luckiest 1 box in 10 holds 31% of all the value, and 67% of boxes are worth less than the average box ($133.05).
Chance a box beats its price is simpler: out of the 10,000 boxes, how many were worth more than the box costs today.
How the number is worked out
Take the luckiest 1 box in 10 and add up how much of all the card value they hold. If every box were worth the same, that would be 10%. Volatility is (that share − 10) × 2, so 0 means every box is worth the same and 100 means the luckiest box in 10 holds 60% or more. Under 20 is Low, 20 to 49 Moderate, 50 to 79 High, 80 and up Extreme.
How a box is opened
How many of each: the publisher doesn't post pull rates, so these come from box-opening trackers: Beta (195 boxes), Arthurian Legends (98) and Gothic (74). Foil Uniques in Arthurian Legends and Gothic are set 10% below the trackers.
Gothic
Arthurian Legends
Beta
Unique
about 7.4
about 4.5
about 7
Elite
about 28.6
about 19.5
about 29
Foil Ordinary
about 1.7
about 2.5
about 3.2
Foil Exceptional
about 4.2
about 2.1
about 3.4
Foil Elite
about 1
about 0.9
about 1.6
Foil Unique
1 in 2 boxes
1 in 2 boxes
about 0.7
Packs a box
36
24
36
Box to box: every pack is drawn on its own, so a box can hold more or fewer of each than the average.
Which card: every card of a type is equally likely.
Prices: each card's TCGplayer Near Mint low on Nov 13, 2026, without shipping. Regular Ordinaries and Exceptionals are not counted.
Average box: the same card value as Rip or Hold. The 10,000 boxes average out to it.