Every day the site opens 10,000 Riftbound boxes at random, at that day's TCGplayer Near Mint lows, to see how far one box lands from the average.
Radiance
Each bar is how many of the 10,000 boxes were worth that much. Boxes right of the dashed line are worth more than the box price. 5% of boxes land past the right edge.
The luckiest 1 box in 10 holds 45% of all the card value.
75% of boxes are worth less than the average box ($66.76); 17% are worth more than the box ($92.55).
Most of the average comes from Overnumbered 34%, Signature 24%, Epic 15%.
Vendetta
Each bar is how many of the 10,000 boxes were worth that much. Boxes right of the dashed line are worth more than the box price. 5% of boxes land past the right edge.
The luckiest 1 box in 10 holds 49% of all the card value.
74% of boxes are worth less than the average box ($81.45); 16% are worth more than the box ($119.03).
Most of the average comes from Overnumbered 33%, Signature 26%, Alt Art / Special Art 17%.
Unleashed
Each bar is how many of the 10,000 boxes were worth that much. Boxes right of the dashed line are worth more than the box price. 5% of boxes land past the right edge.
The luckiest 1 box in 10 holds 49% of all the card value.
80% of boxes are worth less than the average box ($166.11); 21% are worth more than the box ($162.90).
Most of the average comes from Ultimate 26%, Overnumbered 20%, Epic 17%.
Spiritforged
Each bar is how many of the 10,000 boxes were worth that much. Boxes right of the dashed line are worth more than the box price. 5% of boxes land past the right edge.
The luckiest 1 box in 10 holds 55% of all the card value.
83% of boxes are worth less than the average box ($106.41); 10% are worth more than the box ($154.95).
Most of the average comes from Signature 33%, Overnumbered 27%, Epic 19%.
Origins
Each bar is how many of the 10,000 boxes were worth that much. Boxes right of the dashed line are worth more than the box price. 5% of boxes land past the right edge.
The luckiest 1 box in 10 holds 42% of all the card value.
80% of boxes are worth less than the average box ($204.56); 17% are worth more than the box ($227.97).
Most of the average comes from Signature 26%, Epic 26%, Rare 20%.
What volatility means
Most of what a Riftbound box is worth comes from a few rare cards, like Signatures and Overnumbereds. Volatility tells you how much a box depends on pulling one of them.
Low: most boxes are worth about the same. What you open is close to the average.
Moderate: boxes vary, but most land near the average.
High: most boxes come in under the average. A few lucky boxes with a big hit make up the difference.
Extreme: the average is carried by rare hits. Most boxes are worth well under it.
For example, Spiritforged scores 90 (Extreme): the luckiest 1 box in 10 holds 55% of all the value, and 83% of boxes are worth less than the average box ($106.41).
Chance a box beats its price is simpler: out of the 10,000 boxes, how many were worth more than the box costs today.
How the number is worked out
Take the luckiest 1 box in 10 and add up how much of all the card value they hold. If every box were worth the same, that would be 10%. Volatility is (that share − 10) × 2, so 0 means every box is worth the same and 100 means the luckiest box in 10 holds 60% or more. Under 20 is Low, 20 to 49 Moderate, 50 to 79 High, 80 and up Extreme.
How a box is opened
How many of each: Riot's published rates per box. 24 packs a box.
Signature
1 in 30 boxes
Overnumbered
1 in 3 boxes
Alt Art / Special Art
about 2
Alt Art rune
about 1
Epic
about 6
Rare
about 40
Foil common
about 13
Foil uncommon
about 6
Foil battlefield
about 1
Ultimate
Unleashed 1 in 42 boxes, Radiance 1 in 167 boxes
Box to box: real boxes are packed closer to the average than pure chance. Epics, Alt Arts and Alt Art runes vary as much as they did in the 44 full boxes we watched opened on YouTube (Epic give or take 0.7; Alt Art / Special Art give or take 0.6; Alt Art rune give or take 0.6). Everything else is drawn pack by pack.
Which card: every card of a type is equally likely.
Prices: each card's TCGplayer Near Mint low on Nov 13, 2026, without shipping. Regular commons and uncommons are not counted.
Average box: the same card value as Rip or Hold. The 10,000 boxes average out to it.